Don't get me wrong, I am all for a nuclear free world as what is envisioned by President Obama's plan. I think nuclear weapons are the most deadly and probably the most evil form that man has ever thought of in destroying each other.
The problem with the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review is that while its intentions are good in getting rid of nuclear weapons, the assumptions are not really realistic. This is the most important part since if you have a wrong world view, even if your intentions are good, it will be doomed to fail.
1. One assumption that I think isn't realistic is that of Russia. The assumption is that the United States will slowly be able to work hand in hand with the Russian government in minimizing weapons until they're slowly eradicated. One has to ask however; if Russia has the same thing in mind as well?
Do we find any indications that such is in the mind of the Russian regime? The present Russian president for example is a former KGB man. Furthermore; Putin has said in the past that he deplores the collapse of the USSR, the former US rival! For Putin the Russian status-quo isn't ideal and as we can scan from present headlines, he is trying to unify the former states. In Putin's mind the world should be back to where it was during the USSR days.
Another complication is that, Europeans are also of the mind that Communism could be the way to go once more. So even in the area of social mindset, we are not sure anymore if people are still sympathetic to democracy in that region.
2. The present stand of the US administration as to the economy of nuclear weapons is also unrealistic. The principle of supply and demand also applies to nuclear weapons. This administration knows there will always be rogue nations like Iran or North Korea who will go after nuclear weapons. Or they can just be in the form of organizations. Now you have jihadists seeking such weapons as well and they are not bound by geographical jurisdictions or any treaty or have any intentions to do so.
The world now has nuclear weapons technology and let us admit that. Any rogue nation or organization are trying ways in any means possible to acquire the components for such a weapon and they have suppliers for that! There is so much money to be made. Iran and North Korea have nuclear technology because they have the money and people are supplying them with the technology. That is the fact of the matter.
Illegal drugs have been prohibited since time immemorial but yet we have them since there is a constant demand for it. This is going to be the same with nuclear weapons. It will not be totally eradicated but in a sense the danger will continue to increase since as the technology becomes more advanced, it will be easier to produce, as it becomes easier to produce more and more suppliers will come to the fold. As suppliers increase, price will go down as well and the dangerous market place will be as active as ever.
3. The second point actually stems from the mindset that there is no real evil in this world. As long as there is evil in this world, nuclear weapons and other forms of WMDs will have a market. It is just quite puzzling that Hollywood has presented us with very vile characters in the movie screens but the same people who watch them cannot recognize evil even if it stares them in the eye.
