Essential Reading to Understand The Headlines

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Scenario for Palestinian Declaration of Statehood

Shlomo Avineri of Haaretz provides a scenario of what will happen in case the Palestinian Authority suddenly declares Statehood.

What a unilateral declaration of independence would generate, however, is a fundamental change in the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Instead of a dispute between Israeli occupiers and occupied Palestinians, it would become a dispute between two states.

It doesn't just change the scenario in terms of international politics and diplomacy but such a declaration by the Palestinian Authority will result in another armed conflict in that region and it will not just necessarily be Israel vs. Palestine.

If this declaration is indeed the intent of the Palestinian Authority, shouldn't the Obama administration be more concerned as regards this matter? Isn't this a more pressing concern that forcing Israel on the table since if this declaration happens, the point of discussions will be drastically reduced and peace initiatives will be severely limited?

What about Hamas and Fatah in Palestine. Analysts in that region seems to always forget that there are two factions out there in Palestine. Once the declaration begins what will be the dynamic between them? The worst here is that Palestinians will face a three-pronged war. Hamas vs. Fatah vs. Israel because the latter will not just give territories without a fight and I don't it will wait for the two factions to settle their differences.

If Hamas and Fatah set their differences aside to unite and fight Israel, war is still the result. In either case it will be tough for everyone living in that region.